Construction machinery industry: look forward to policy adjustment

Recently, Xugong Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. organized an exchange seminar for high-speed railway bridge inspection vehicles and three-armed rock drill trolleys. Experts and scholars from China Railway Fifth Institute and Xi'an Jiaotong University attended the meeting. In December 2011, sales data of the construction machinery industry announced that in addition to loaders and cranes, sales data for models such as excavators, bulldozers, and road rollers continued to show negative growth, and the industry was still under pressure. We believe that the continuation of the country’s macro tightening policy is the main reason for the weakening of domestic demand in the industry. Although the overall monetary policy in 2012 will still be based on soundness, the 8 trillion credits in 2012 are expected to be better than in 2011, and liquidity is expected to improve. In December 2011, M2 increased by 0.91 percentage point to 13.61% compared with the previous month. Since the continuous decline since June 2011, the monthly indicator has increased for the first time. We believe that if M2 can continue to improve, the business climate will usher in an opportunity.

There is a clear correlation between industry demand and monetary policy. The forward-looking effect of M2 on the year-on-year growth rate of the construction machinery industry has been continuously verified in recent years. The M2 growth rate in December was 13.61%, which was the first time in six months. It is expected that the CPI in December will continue to decline in the chain, and the regulatory effect will gradually emerge. The market expects credit will reach 8 trillion yuan in 2012, which is higher than 2011, coupled with fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies. It is expected that the industry's worst time has passed, but the overall From the perspective of the high base in the first quarter of last year, the overall year-on-year data of construction machinery during the peak season this year will continue to decrease.

Exceeded the high base of the same period of last year, the excavators decreased by 38.78% year-on-year: In December 2011, 25 major excavator manufacturers sold 8495 excavators, a decrease of 38.78% year-on-year and a month-on-month decrease of 4.64%. From January to December, 177,573 units were sold, an increase of 6.50% over the same period of last year. Excavator sales haven't changed much in the month compared to last month. Considering the reduction in total construction in the country in December, this month's sales volume is still acceptable. In the first quarter of 2012, it will still be affected by the same period of base year, negative growth year-on-year is still a high probability event, but downstream demand will gradually pick up, and the peak season will come. The sales volume of excavators is expected to gradually increase.

The loader increased by 7.69% year-on-year, and the demand was relatively stable: According to statistics from China Construction Machinery Business Network, in December 2011, 25 major loader manufacturers sold 19,883 loaders, an increase of 7.69% year-on-year, and an increase of 12.42% compared with the previous period. From January to December, the company sold 246,604 units, an increase of 13.85% year-on-year. Based on the high base figure of the previous year, the sales volume of this month still showed a significant increase year-on-year, which also reflected the stability of industry demand. Due to the relatively large demand for loaders in the mining and terminal logistics sectors, and the demand in these regions is relatively stable, the demand for the loader industry is expected to be relatively stable even if infrastructure investment is decelerating.

The investment in highways was sluggish. The bulldozers and roller machines continued to decline sharply. In December 2011, 12 major bulldozer manufacturers sold 566 bulldozers, which was a year-on-year decline of 44.67% and a month-on-month decline of 20.39%. From January to December, 13,097 units were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%. In December 2011, 21 major road roller manufacturers sold a total of 988 road rollers, which fell 58.24% year-on-year and 12.33% year-on-year. From January to December, a total of 21,617 units were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 15.19%. Considering this year's major downstream investment in bulldozers and road rollers—the decline in highway investment growth, the trend of low bulldozers and bulldozers will continue.

December sales fell slightly month-on-month, which was a year-on-year decline due to the high base: In December 2011, 14 major truck crane manufacturers sold a total of 2007 truck cranes, which fell 37.83% year-on-year and fell 8.15% month-on-month. From January to December, 35,460 units were sold, a year-on-year increase of 0.10%. In December 2011, seven major crawler crane manufacturers sold a total of 173 crawler cranes, an increase of 46.61% year-on-year and an increase of 24.46% month-on-month. From January to December, 1,916 units were sold, an increase of 9.49% year-on-year. In December 2011, a total of 11 major truck-mounted crane manufacturers achieved sales of truck mounted cranes of 703 units, of which 54 units of “Hunan Feitao” and 11 of Changchun Shenjun were manufacturers of new statistics this year. Compared with the year-on-year and comparison figures, we eliminated the sales volume of the two manufacturers. The industry sales volume was 638 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 20.15% and a month-on-month decline of 11.51%. From January to December, 8,206 units were sold, a year-on-year increase of 28.62%. With the recovery of railway infrastructure projects, we believe that the demand for cranes will increase in 2012.

Slower export growth: In December, the export growth rate of the industry slowed down, and the exports of bulldozers, rollers, and loaders increased by 0.48%, -44.08%, and 22.75% year-on-year, respectively, and the cumulative growth from January to December was 50.62% and 6.45% respectively. , 59.99%. Compared with November, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of other products, except for loaders, has dropped. Affected by the overseas economic recovery and the strategy of leading overseas expansion of engineering machinery, the industry's export trend is optimistic, and it is also said that part of the industry's economic prosperity.

The major uncertainties facing the industry in the future:

First, macroeconomic adjustment led to a faster-than-expected decline in economic growth; Second, monetary policy tightening exceeded expectations; Third, raw material price fluctuations exceeded expectations; Fourth, industry capacity release exceeded expectations

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