Global Automotive Forum Consensus: The Automotive Industry Turns to Emerging Markets

With the oil shortage, energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental issues, the global automotive industry is quietly making its fourth major transfer. Yesterday (September 16) at the Global Automotive Forum Entrepreneur/Economist Roundtable Meeting in Chengdu, the car company-level research institutions who spoke at the meeting reached a consensus: The global automotive industry is moving to emerging markets. Around this topic, on-site spokespersons spoke from various aspects such as the rise of new energy vehicles, rapid economic recovery in emerging markets, national income, employment, government credit, and business models.

Developed automobile demand shrinks

The global automobile landscape is facing a huge transformation, which is related to the rise of emerging markets and the decline of developed markets.

Japan’s Mitsubishi Motors’ president Yoshiko Yasushi said that last year Japan’s total automobile sales were less than 5 million vehicles, which is equivalent to two-thirds of the peak period in 1990, equivalent to 30 years ago, that is, the level of 1980. There are no signs of improvement in the future, but there are many unfavorable factors, such as the decline in population and aging, the shift of population to cities, and the decreasing number of young people who want to buy cars, and the longer the life of cars.

“If the government does not introduce some policies to increase the Japanese population, it is difficult for us to expect the revitalization of the Japanese auto industry,” said Yoshiko pessimistically.

The automobile industry is a very important industry for Japan, accounting for 20% of the manufacturing industry, and employs 10% of the labor force. Nowadays, the Japanese automobile industry relies mainly on exports.

In addition to Japan, the demand for cars in Europe and the United States is also not optimistic. According to David G. Fernandez, general manager of Emerging Asia Research at JP Morgan, GDP, employment, income, and credit are all major factors that predict the future of the automotive market. At present, market demand in the United States and Europe will continue to decline.

Fernandez said that the U.S. GDP growth rate is between 2% and 2.5%, but we predict that U.S. unemployment rate will exceed 10% in the future, and that economic recovery will be slow in the next few years and national income will decline significantly, and car consumption will certainly decline in 2012. .

“Another factor is the credit policy. Credit is the blood of industry. Banks in Europe and the United States still face difficulties and cannot provide large amounts of credit. For European and American automobile markets, which are dominated by automobile credit consumption, the effect of credit on local car sales is obvious. ," Fernandez thinks.

Fernandez said in the report that in the United States and Western Europe, car demand is declining, but in 2009 China's car sales reached 13.6 million units, the first time over the United States to become the world's largest car sales market. This shows that from a medium to long-term perspective, the growth of automobiles is mainly concentrated in developing countries and emerging countries.

"The emerging markets are a key word. Asian economies and credits are completely different from those of the United States. It is expected that the GDP of China and India will continue to grow," said Fernandez.

New energy opportunities for industrial transfer

The fourth shift in the global automotive industry has become a consensus. The rise of the emerging automobile market has caused the global automotive giant investment region to change. China and emerging markets have become the focus of the layout.

“The global automotive industry will transfer to China and some emerging economies. This is unstoppable. China and emerging markets will start a product revolution led by new energy vehicles,” said Zhang Baolin, president of Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. .

Zhang Baolin said in the report that the automobile industry's shift to low-carbon and green as the main features, will form a new round of car development in China and even the world characterized by low carbonization.

Yizi Xiu believes that the rise of new energy automotive products is likely to bring structural changes to the auto industry and parts and components industry.

General Manager Wang Dazhan of Beijing Auto Holding Corporation pointed out that the global auto industry shift is related to the traditional business model of European and American autos. The traditional auto giants encountered many difficulties in the 21st century, and each vehicle and every technology has invested huge sums of money, resulting in high prices. The cost is currently difficult to find an effective solution. Now that many regional headquarters of multinational companies have moved to China, many investment groups have also shifted their focus to the Chinese auto market. It is very important for the Chinese auto industry to play a leading role in this transition.

Wang Da believes that lead should be conducted from two aspects. First, in the aspect of products, the new energy vehicles are truly well-made and are ahead of the world. Second, the traditional business model must be reformed, and technological innovation and business model innovation must be carried out.