Potash contract price will fall below 400 US dollars next year

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China Drying Network News recently, the two major potash fertilizer companies in Qinghai Province, the potash fertilizer in Qinghai, and Xinjiang Guotou Luo potassium significantly reduced the price of potash, which has formed a significant impact on the domestic potash fertilizer market.

In early September, Qinghai Salt Lake Group took the lead in adjusting the sales price of potassium chloride, with an average decrease of 5.4%. Among them, 60% of potassium chloride to the station price of the largest reduction, compared to the previous period fell 160 to 170 yuan (ton price, the same below); 60% powdered potassium chloride from the previous 3,110 yuan to 2,950 yuan. The price for big customers is even more favorable. The base price for settlement is 2820 yuan, and for 100,000 tons, it is as low as 2,720 yuan.

On September 20, Yunnan tobacco tenders came to an end. Xinjiang Luoka won the bid. The low price shocked the market. The final contract price was potassium sulfate to the station price of 2828 yuan, with a total turnover of 150,000 tons, compared with Guizhou Tobacco in August. Tender, potassium sulfate to the station price is also strong at 3555 yuan level. Subsequently, Xinjiang Potassium Potassium Sulphate National Down to the station price down to 2950 yuan, previously 3410 yuan, down 460 yuan, a drop of up to 13.49%.

From January to August, China imported a total of 5.26 million tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 1.28 million tons from the 3.98 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 32.16%. From January to August, China produced a total of 3.384 million tons of potash fertilizer, which is equivalent to 5.46 million tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 5.3% over the same period of last year, which is equivalent to an increase of 270,000 tons of potassium chloride in kind. The simultaneous increase in both production and import volume led to an increase of 1.55 million tons of potassium chloride supply in the domestic market this year. The annual demand for potash fertilizer in China is about 11 million tons, which means that the increase in market supply exceeds 10%. In the second half of the year, the largest consumer of potash fertilizer—compound fertilizer companies—because of the poor demand and low operating rate, the demand for potash fertilizer is relatively limited, and the competitive pressure in the potash fertilizer market is increasing. In this case, the leading domestic potash fertilizer companies have taken the lead in lowering prices, which is also in line with the market.

The price of potash fertilizer leading enterprises has been significantly reduced, which also shows that the self-supply rate of potash fertilizer in China is increasing. Its influence on the domestic market is increasing, and the original followers have gradually become the market leader. In the past, the price of potash fertilizer in China has always followed the international market, and the sales price of domestic potash fertilizer was determined on the basis of annual or semi-annual determination of the contract price of imported potash fertilizer. However, with the substantial increase in the production of potash fertilizer in China, the self-supply rate of potash rose from 10% in 2000 to 58% in 2011. Xinjiang Potassium has an annual production capacity of 1.2 million tons, which has become the world's largest producer of potassium sulfate, and will be expanded to a scale of 3 million tons in the future. The output of potassium chloride in the Qinghai region is also continuously expanding. In the future, the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer in China will be further increased.

In the future, potash fertilizer companies in China will be more priced based on the market, rather than simply pricing according to the large contract price, price autonomy will become stronger and stronger, and even the possibility that the domestic potash fertilizer price will determine the contract price. Some market participants predict that next year's potash contract price will fall below $400, which is a substantial reduction from the current $470 CIF price.

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