On March 28, 2012, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting to review and approve the "School Safety Management Regulations (Draft)" in principle. Premier Wen pointed out that it is necessary to pay close attention to improving school bus standards, do a good job in school bus design, production, transformation, and equipment, and establish a corresponding management system. Trolling Motor Parts, Trolling Motor Accessories, Trolling Motor Reviews, 24 Volt Trolling Motor Wiring Diagram Ningbo Haibo Group Co.,Ltd. , https://www.hbtrollingmotors.com
For the introduction of the school bus new policy, industry insiders generally believe that in 2012 passenger car companies are likely to benefit from the school bus market facing explosive growth.
400 billion cakes to be divided
According to the statistics of relevant institutions, the number of primary and middle school students in China is about 230 million. According to the average estimate of 35 seats per car, about 1 million school buses are needed to satisfy the market. At present, there are only 100,000 school buses in China, only about 10,000 vehicles meet the standard, and the number of students in the thousand is only 0.12. Based on this, it is speculated that the potential market demand for professional school buses in China is 400 billion yuan.
In fact, under the influence of public opinion and policy, the school bus industry war has quietly started. Domestic mainstream school bus manufacturers such as Yutong Bus, SAIC Commercial Vehicles MAXUS Chase, Huanghai Bus, Jianghuai Bus, and Zhejiang Youth Automobile have taken action to seize the big cake in the future school bus market.
“In the next ten years, professional school bus products will open up new growth space for the bus industry.†Dongfang Securities pointed out that due to the lack of national supervision, improper operating mechanism and insufficient purchasing power, the current domestic professional school bus products can be neglected. The vicious traffic accidents caused by non-professional school bus products causing heavy casualties during the operation process are endless.
It is reported that the school bus accident in Zhengning County, Gansu Province in 2011 caused heavy casualties and social impact. After the accident, all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have set up provincial-level special inspection work teams, and the special supervision work for students to go to school for traffic safety has begun. In accordance with the actual situation, the localities will carry out inspections according to local conditions and formulate school bus safety improvement measures.
Orient Securities expects that the advancement of these rectification measures is expected to drive the establishment of a safe and standardized school bus operating mechanism, and is expected to drive the professional school bus market into an explosive growth period.
At present, in the domestic school bus market, the number of cards on Yutong, Changan and Dongfeng school buses ranks in the top three in the market. The top ten companies on the school bus accounted for 89% of the total market, and the top three companies accounted for 52% of the total market.
Orient Securities believes that the implementation of the "School Bus Safety Regulations", the professional school bus market demand will be released quickly. The explosive growth of the school bus market not only makes the passenger car market expand rapidly, but is also expected to push up the price of passenger car products in the short term. The profitability of the bus industry is expected to re-enter the stage of rapid growth.
Guojin Securities believes that due to its public welfare nature and involving financial subsidies and government procurement, the school bus market will have a strong “public transit†characteristic. In the long run, according to the share of the bus market, the degree of benefit to the school bus is relatively high. feasible. The two leading companies of Yutong and Jinlong are expected to receive the largest number of school bus orders, which will benefit the most. If the degree of influence on the company's performance is affected, the benefits of enterprises with higher public transportation such as Huanghai, Ankai and Yaxing may be more significant. .
Ping An Securities pointed out that the growth of school bus sales has promoted the growth of the bus industry, and the market share of Yutong school buses has remained above 40% for two consecutive months. From January to February, the passenger car industry sold 32,000 passenger cars of various types, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, mainly due to the substantial increase in sales of school buses. From January to February, the sales volume of school buses was 4,577, accounting for 14.2% of the total sales of passenger cars. The special school bus segment has basically formed. Yutong Bus's school bus market share has remained above 40% for two consecutive months, while other bus companies' school bus orders are not stable enough. Yutong has obvious advantages in the school bus market.
Open the new growth space for passenger cars
Industry insiders pointed out that for countries such as the United States and Japan, where school buses are widely promoted, it can be found that the successful school bus operation management mechanism not only depends on the safety of the school bus itself, but also the strict driver selection system and detailed Laws and regulations, strong financial support and support have been integrated, so the determination of the implementation of the state functional departments will become the key to the success of China's school bus operators.
"The announcement of the school bus related regulations shows that the government pays full attention to the students' traffic safety issues." Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, told reporters that local governments may increase the relevant budget and the school bus market is expected to usher. An important development opportunity.
According to media reports, under the central government push, the attention paid to the safety of school buses has reached an unprecedented height, and the demand for school bus purchases has also exploded.
For example, the first Shandong Longkou officially announced the school bus program, in 2011, invested more than 17 million yuan to purchase 50 school buses; in early 2012, Qingyang, Gansu also invested 9.8 million yuan to purchase 40 school buses. Recently, the Chongqing Municipal Administration of Work Safety also revealed that 3,000 safety standardized school buses will be put into operation during the year.
“Government governments at all levels will increase financial support, or it will promote explosive growth in the school bus industry.†In the view of Guo Wen Securities analyst Wu Wenzhao, school bus manufacturers are not only facing event opportunities, but the industry’s overall environment. Great improvement.
“We judge that the passenger car market will increase by 12% in 2012. Among them, the school bus sales increase will contribute 4%.†Zhen Zhenqing, secretary general of the China Highway Society Bus Branch, predicted that the school bus demand in China is 1 million. about.
According to Zhen Zhenqing, according to market research, the school bus demand in each county is about 300~500 vehicles, and there are about 2800 counties (cities) in the country, with a total demand of 1.5 million.
Gao Hesheng, deputy director of the China Automotive Research Center, also said that there are currently 90 million students and children in China who need to take a school bus. The market capacity of professional school buses will exceed 1 million, and the annual demand for renewal will reach 150,000.
According to data from the China Bus Statistics Information Network, in the first two months of 2012, the country sold 4,577 school buses, accounting for 14.22% of the total sales, which basically met expectations. From the average selling price, the cumulative sales of school buses in the first two months was 730 million yuan, and the average selling price was 159,400 yuan per vehicle.
Up to now, there are nearly 200 kinds of school bus products in more than 40 enterprises in the market. With the release of demand, the school bus companies and products that enter the product announcement will continue to increase. “This is an opportunity for the school bus to bring to the bus industry, but there are certain risks.â€
Qi Zhenqing pointed out that the published "Regulations" did not give specific technical standards. He suggested: "It is a good choice to set strict school bus standards and control the flood of school buses by improving the barriers to entry."