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Recently, State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd. has released a news about smart meters that has attracted widespread attention.
State Grid Beijing Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced that Beijing's smart meter replacement work will be launched in 2013. During the year, 1.2 million resident users will be free to reload, covering a total of 1,500 residential communities in 16 districts and counties in Beijing.
With the leap-forward construction of smart grids in recent years, the importance of smart meters for the power distribution side is beyond doubt. However, in the recent ten years of major power development, the development path of domestic heavy and light power distribution has made the power generation The related industries in the transmission and transmission sectors have grown rapidly, and the distribution side has become a weak link that needs to be nurtured.
Ten years later today, looking around the environment for the survival of power equipment, on the one hand, the scale of investment by the two major power grid companies has not increased significantly. On the Other hand, many industries in the power generation and transmission industries have not been allowed to expand due to the previous years. Do not face the burden of excess capacity, in this context, smart meters can be called an oasis of people's cold.
2.22 billion indicators will run out of smart meters will sit still? How large is the market size of smart meters? The State Grid Corporation of China has announced relevant plans in 2010: the total installed capacity of smart metering plans is 222 million. By the end of 2010, smart meter coverage has reached 15%; by the end of 2011, it has reached 35%; by the end of 2012, it has reached 65%; by the end of 2013, it has reached 90%. At the end of 2014, it reached 100%. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, full coverage, full collection, and full control of all users in the direct supply and direct management area were realized.
However, people have noticed that as of the end of 2012, the State Grid Corporation of China had already bid for 184 million smart meters in total, which means that there will be only 38 million vacancies left in the future. When the conclusion was reached, the market was uproar. Did the facts really be true? The reporter interviewed experts in the industry. They all denied this inference.
Huang Shunhong, a researcher at Essence Securities, gave two predictions of conservativeness and optimism. According to its conservative estimate, 60% of the rural areas in the State Grid Corporation of China could become direct supply and direct management areas for power grid companies by 2015. In total, there are 126 million rural areas. Regional users have switched to direct supply and direct management of regional users, together with urban users, totaling 316 million, that is, a total of 316 million smart meters; if optimistic estimates, if all users in rural areas have realized direct supply and direct management, according to the national If the grid company plans to achieve full coverage, it will need to accumulatively tender 400 million smart meters by 2015. China Southern Power Grid Corporation estimated that the smart meter coverage rate will be 50% in 2015, and the annual increase will be calculated as 22% of the country's new number, and the demand for smart meters will also be 50 million by 2015.
Zhou Liqian, a researcher of China Everbright Power Equipment and the new energy industry, is even more brave. He believes that by 2020, the national smart meter will have a market capacity of over 100 billion yuan. According to his inference, in 2013 2015, the two major power grid companies will call for 287 million smart meters, of which State Grid Corporation will bid 235 million (0.48 billion for replacement needs only); by 2016, the two major power grid companies will bid 503 million, Among them, the State Grid Corporation of China will bid 412 million (of which 371 million are for replacement). The total amount of bids for two-stage bidding is as high as 790 million. If the calculation is based on an average of 175 yuan per meter, there will be more than 100 billion yuan of market capacity for smart meters in China.
Therefore, the view of only 38 million market spaces remains obviously unable to establish a foothold.
Where did the 100 billion yuan market come from? According to public data, the State Grid Corporation of China began installing smart meters in 2010, installing 3.34 million smart phones in 2010, and installing 51.62 million in 2011.
However, will the scale of future development of smart meters really exceed 100 billion yuan as stated by the aforementioned experts? Where is the smart meter to be expanded? The transformation of rural power grids will be a very important market. Zhou Liqian said. In fact, careful people are not difficult to find, in 2012 the National Grid Corporation's four batches of smart meter tender results can support Zhou Liqian's above view. According to the results of the bidding, provincial network companies such as Hunan Province have started bidding for smart meters for use in rural distribution network renovation projects. For example, the Hunan Provincial Power Company issued the fourth batch of 111,000 level 2 single-phase smart meters in 2012, of which 78% was used in various places. County company administrative village distribution network renovation project. Huang Shouhong also expressed his agreement with this view. At the same time, he also gave a positive judgment on the future development prospects of smart meters from another perspective: Generally speaking, the lifespan of electricity meters is 5-8 years, and smart meters have higher precision due to their higher precision. We follow the five-year estimate. By 2015, the first smart meters to be installed will need to be replaced. It is estimated that there will be 23 million units. In 2016, the demand will be replaced by 052 million units. After that, the annual replacement demand will continue to increase.
Therefore, it is not difficult to see that smart meters will basically have no suspense. Do smart meter manufacturers also feel this spring? Taking Samsung Electric, a leading domestic manufacturer of smart meters, as an example, the reporter found through his annual report that in 2012, the company realized operating income of 2.562 billion yuan, an increase of 3.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42%. Linyang Electronics, the main business of smart meter business, realized operating revenue of RMB 1.913 billion in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, and a net profit of RMB 303 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.24%. It can be seen that smart meter companies are facing Huge opportunities for development. However, we must say that even facing the same general environment, the strategy, positioning, management, and marketing strategies of different company-to-company differences will all result in poor performance. Which company can succeed in this success? People may wish to wait and see.
What are the future development prospects of smart meters in China?
Introduction: With the leap-forward construction of smart grids in recent years, the importance of smart meters for the power distribution side is beyond question. However, in the recent ten years of major power development, the development path for domestic heavy and light power distribution has been The related industries in the power generation and transmission sectors have grown rapidly, and the distribution side has become a weak link that needs to be fed. What are the future development trends of smart meters?